rebuilding the obama coalition online

 
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Affinity Ratings

 

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Analysis I

Traditional Digital Marketing methods search for audiences that show interests in only their campaign. Our strategy is understanding what interests attract Virginia voter engagement and you use those same channels to broadcast your message and engage with voters.

Analysis II

There is an overwhelming presence of Virginia voters who have a strong "Affinity Rating" for former president, Barack Obama, and former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Engaging and mobilizing those voters is key to a Tom Perriello victory.


By Location...

In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton fended off Bernie Sanders’s challenge with the strong support of two key groups: wealthy, educated whites and mostly working-class nonwhite Democrats.* 

Nate Silver has compiled tables that show the huge shift from Obama to Clinton in America’s most educated counties. But his confident gloss that “education, not income” guided the electorate somewhat overstates the case, even according to his own data. A look at affluent suburban returns on a district and town level suggests that some combination of income, education, culture, and geography — in a word, “class” — drove Clinton’s most dramatic gains.*

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Clinton was their candidate. By holding off Sanders’s populist challenge — and declining to concede fundamental ground on economic issues — the former secretary of state proved she could be trusted to protect the vital interests of voters in Newton, Eden Prairie, and Falls Church. They, more than any other group in America, were enthusiastically #WithHer.*

*Source: Fairfax County, USA


Demographics...

Like most of the country, a majority of Virginia's residents identify as Caucasian (68.98%). Relative to the country more people identify as:

  • African American (+ 6.64%)

Accounting for 19.25% of the Virginia Population

Places like Danville, Virginia, is a prime example of Hillary Clinton over-performing outside of her "class" base of wealthy, educated voters, more than likely because of the demographic make-up. Danville is 48.3% African-American, and over 50% of it's population is an ethnic minority.

Targeting and Identifying more "Danville-types", in places where the the Northam campaign will not, can make up huge differences in voter share, because of expected low turnout numbers relative to CVAP data and in comparison with the 2009 Democratic primary in which only 319,168 (less than 6.5% of total registered VA voters) votes were cast.
This same locale, over-performed in 2012 and 2016, further emphasizing the impact of it's demographic make-up past class issues.

...and Interests

We inferred from publicly available voter registration, turnout, demographic data, and when matched to social data, segmented a portion of the Virginia voting electorate for targeting. This included those showing high Affinity Ratings for "Barack Obama" and "OFA - Virginia". When location is taken into account, we observed great opportunities to expand the electoral map, and in this instance, outpace the opponent with a comprehensive digital marketing strategy.

Within the context of a social data-driven analysis, The number we found are striking:

 
  • The TOTAL number of Virginia Facebook users, considered, "Active" in politics (a great indicator of voting potential) is 1M - 1.5M, monthly.

  • African-American Virginians considered, "Active" in politics, number between 600K - 650K, monthly Facebook users.

  • Mostly Liberal and Liberal "Active" Virginia voter's Affinity Ratings (based on engagement and positive sentiments) overlap strongly with Barack Obama (350K) and 700K -800K, overall...

  • ...Dwarfing both Clinton (~90K) and Sanders (~60K). 

 

This speaks to the power and influence of relevant and timely messaging, directly, to each segment, on the platforms and devices they use most frequently. This is not to suggest focusing on one segment, but instead, to craft a digital and social ads plan will resonate with each potential voter in as granular, and targeted a manner as possible: county to county, precinct to precinct and polling place to polling place.